an accuracy analysis of daily weather forecasts. This assignment asks you to conduct an accuracy analysis of daily weather forecasts over a 30-day period. You are required to submit two deliverables: a 30-day weather log and your analysis paper.
Download the “Weather Log,” which you may use to track the weather over a 30-day period. Alternately, you may create your own weather log.
Select a single weather forecast source, for example, a TV station, radio station, website, or newspaper. Be sure to stick with the source you have selected for the duration of this project. You may but are not required to use one of the following recommended sources:
- NOAA: http://www.nws.noaa.gov
- Weather Channel: http://www.weather.com
- Weather Underground: http://wunderground.com
- NOAA’s Aviation Weather Center, Aviation Digital Data Service (ADDS): http://adds.aviationweather.gov
Track the forecasted and actual weather each day for 30 days in your weather log. If possible, track each of the following weather elements:
- Daily high temperature—Record the maximum for the day.
- Air pressure—Use decreasing/increasing if you do not have a barometric setting.
- Humidity—Predict rain, snow, and so forth including intensity, and include percentage if known.
- Cloud cover—Record whether overcast (8/8 cloud cover); broken (5/8-7/8 cloud cover); scattered (3/8-4/8 cloud cover); few (0 to 2/8 cloud cover); or clear (no clouds).
- Precipitation—Record the type and intensity.
- Visibility—Record the measurement if known, or describe.
- Wind—Record the direction blowing from and speed if forecasted.
Use the comments section to note items of interest and observations that will help you write the analysis.
Weather Analysis Paper
Refer to the “How to Write the 30-Day Weather Analysis Paper” guide for information on writing and formatting this paper.
Write a 10-page (not including the weather log) paper that analyzes the accuracy of your selected source’s weather forecasts over a 30-day period. The paper should consider the following questions:
- Overall, how accurate was your source in forecasting weather over the 30-day analysis period? What contributed to the accuracy (or inaccuracy of the forecast)?
- Which elements were most accurately forecast? Which elements were least accurately forecast? Why?
- Do you see any trends or correlations between weather elements?
- Did a front move through the forecasted area? What changes were observed? What were the characteristics of the front?
- Did the weather during your 30-day period deviate from the historical weather in that period? Were there any anomalies? What might be the cause?
Cite any sources and provide links, if possible.
Format your paper consistent with APA guidelines.